The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks start their battle in the Eastern Conference Semifinals this evening as they square off in Game 1 at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
During the regular season, Indiana won two of its matchups against New York, scoring 140 and 125 points in their two wins. This is a well-balanced team as it relates to scoring as seven players in the series against the Milwaukee Bucks averaged at least 9.5 points per contest.
The Pacers are coming off a 4-2 series win against the aforementioned Bucks, winning the series as the No. 6 seed. Indiana brings the best offense in the NBA to this series; the Pacers led the league in points (123.3 points per game) and field goal percentage (50.7%).
The Knicks are coming off one of the best first-round series in recent memory in their win against the Philadelphia 76ers. The series went six games and provided some of the most insane endings to games fans have seen in recent memory.
New York has been one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference the entire year and it will benefit from home-court advantage in this series. While Indiana goes deeper in its bench, the Knicks will play their best players for much of the game. Josh Hart averaged 46.3 minutes in the series against Philadelphia, while Jalen Brunson (43.8) and OG Anunoby (41.7) both played extended minutes too.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Knicks as 5.5-point favorites with an over/under of 217.5.
Let's take a closer look at the odds and trends:
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
Time/TV: 6:30 p.m. CT (TNT)
Spread (from DraftKings Sportsbook): Knicks -5.5
Total: 217.5
Moneyline: Knicks -235, Pacers +192
Analysis: If the Pacers are going to get off to a fast start in this series, they will need to get more from their All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton has been dealing with a knee injury, so he's not been at his best.
Despite that, he averaged 16.0 points and 9.3 assists per game against the Bucks. The concerning part is Haliburton shot only 29.6% from beyond the arc and only got to the free throw line 1.2 times per game. This is down from 36.4% and 3.3 free throws on average during the regular season.
When the Pacers traded for Pascal Siakam, they brought him for these exact moments. He was exceptional in the opening round, averaging 22.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. His ability to guard multiple positions is a huge advantage in any matchup, and the duel between Siakam and Anunoby — former Raptors teammates — could be a deciding factor in this series.
Meanwhile, Brunson is coming off an incredible series where he averaged 35.5 points and 9.0 assists per contest. He was unstoppable down the stretch against Philadelphia and a huge reason why the Knicks advanced.
During the regular season against the Pacers, Brunson averaged 35.7 points. Brunson's former Villanova teammate, Hart, has an equally large role to play. He averaged 12.6 rebounds per game, while also hitting numerous big shots in the series against the 76ers. Role players like Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein and Donte DiVincenzo are all capable of making big plays for the Knicks too, which is a huge reason that New York is such a tough matchup.
This series is intriguing because the two teams play drastically different styles. The Knicks are a physical type of team, while the Pacers are looking to get out and run. Whichever team can control the contests will win this series, and the Knicks will get things started with a win.
Prediction: Knicks 111, Timberwolves 104 (Under 217.5)
Best bet: Knicks -5.5 (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook)